Calculating Serious Infection Risk in IMID Patients Save
Predictive modeling of data derived from the DANBIO registry (of treated IMID patients) revealed a 4 fold increased risk of serious infection (SIE) in those starting biologic DMARD (bDMARD) treatment. From this large dataset, researchers developed a simple prediction model to estimate future infection risk that may inform shared decision-making in individual patients.
The DANBIO registry includes nationwide registries in Denmark of immune-mediated inflammatory disease (IMID) patients with rheumatoid arthritis, axial spondyloarthritis and psoriatic arthritis who are initiating their first bDMARD. From this dataset they calculated the risk of serious infection during 12 months' follow-up.
The analysis included 11 372 patients and 113 715 controls. Overall, SIE was seen in 4.6% of patients vs 1.3% in controls (hazard ratio 3.7, 95% confidence interval: 3.4-4.1).
They devleloped simple prediction model, the "DANBIO infection risk score" tbased on age and a count of six clinical risk factors. This risk score was comparable to that of the existing RABBIT risk score (external validation: AUC 0.68).