Gout Forecast: 70% Increase by 2050 Save

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) of 2021 has forecasted prevalence of gout to increase by 70% by 2050. 

 

Gout prevalence from 1990 to 2020 was estimated by drawing on population-based data from 35 countries and claims data from the USA and Taiwan (province of China).

 

In the USA, the prevalence of gout is estimated to be 10.3 million. As of 2020, 55.8 million people globally had gout, with a prevalence of 659.3 per 100 000 (this represents a 22.5% increase since 1990). 

Moreover, the global prevalence of gout in 2020 was 3.26 times higher in males than in females and increased with age. 

 

The forecast suggests the global prevalence of gout to rise to 95.8 million by 2050 (or  667 per 100 000), with population growth being the largest contributor to this increase and only a very small contribution from the forecasted change in gout prevalence.   High BMI (obesity) accounted for 34% of YLDs due to gout and kidney dysfunction accounted for 11·8% .

 

Primarily due to population growth and ageing, the prevalence of gout will continue to rise, with a minor contribution by increasing obesity.